Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

نویسندگان

چکیده

The objective of this article is to present climate projections for the 2020–2050 period several variables State São Paulo, considering two scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. These were based on four models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, CanESM2, BESM) with downscaling 20 km improved by CPTEC/INPE Eta Regional Climate Model. Nine related air temperature rainfall selected, deviation between observed (1961–1990) projected (2020–2050) was calculated each model selected variable. Then, highest lowest values deviations which represent maximum minimum cell. With this, we obtained widest range possible trends compared variable analyzed in state Paulo. used show warming atmosphere, tends be less intense shoreline due control exerted ocean, greater northwest region state, furthest from Atlantic. A reduction Cold Spell Duration Index (CSDI) an increase Warm (WSDI) projected, these increasing south north state. Considering precipitation, no consensus study found, both decrease annual total extreme indices. Among different trends, precipitation worst scenario faced, given essential aspect water. indicators (R95p RX5day) showed a wide scenarios, deserves particular attention, since potential trigger disasters, such as landslides, floods, accelerated erosion. results, their relevance, applied Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) technical political planning instrument that establishes guidelines land use management, environmental characteristics socioeconomic dynamics regions

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Derbyana

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2764-1465']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14295/derb.v43.773